Regarding the RRR cut and interest rate cut, many market participants believe that easing means that the economy is weak and demand is insufficient. Therefore, the cycle of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts is usually accompanied by a bear market cycle. Historically, RRR cuts and interest rate cuts have always boosted the market in the short term, and will not change its operating trend in the medium to long term.
Judging from the performance of several interest rate cuts since November 21, 2014, the futures market has been flat. In particular, on November 25 last year, the bulk commodity market remained weak and fluctuating. Coal and coking steel, which is closely linked to the physical industry, fell the most: on the same day, iron ore futures fell 2.73%, coke futures fell 2.29%, thermal coal futures fell 1.46%, and rebar Futures fell 1.06%, and coking coal futures fell 0.8%.
Regarding the impact of the RRR cut and interest rate cut, Wang Jun, director of the Founder Mid-term Futures Research Institute, believes that the commodity market will continue to fluctuate mainly at the bottom. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the guidance of China’s economic data in the first half of the year and the US employment data in June against the US dollar. The influence of exponential conduction. The focus can be on the recent rebound of energy and chemical varieties and the bottom rebound of feed breeding varieties.
Most other experts interviewed by the reporter believe that the bulk commodity market will continue to be weak in the later period. The purpose of the central bank’s RRR cut and interest rate cut is to reduce social financing costs, but it will not improve overall liquidity in the short term, and has very limited impact on traditional bulk commodities. Most commodity-related industries are still in the deleveraging cycle, and banks recover loans at the end of the year, and companies have to destock. Capital needs, so it is difficult to perform too well.
Looking ahead, analysts pointed out that because China’s economy is currently in a period of overcapacity and structural adjustments, the purpose of interest rate cuts is mainly to reduce financing costs. The central bank has not changed the direction of monetary policy. Therefore, structural adjustments in various domestic industries will continue, and interest rate cuts will affect the commodity market. The impact will be limited. Some market participants predict that the main line that affects commodity futures in the market outlook is still the supply and demand situation, and most companies are difficult to change the tight state of funds. Therefore, it is expected that commodity futures, especially coal, coke, steel, copper and other varieties with prominent supply and demand contradictions, will continue to be weak.
Regarding the trend of stock index futures, Wang Jun believes that the timing of the central bank’s move is very important. First of all, China’s economy is in a critical period of transition between new and old industries and development momentum. The task of stabilizing growth, promoting reform, benefiting people’s livelihood, and preventing risks is still It is very difficult and needs to continue to use monetary policy tools flexibly; secondly, China’s price level is still operating at a low level, and the real interest rate is higher than the historical average; thirdly, as July approaches, the semi-annual Chinese economic data will be released in mid-July, June Manufacturing PMI and other data will be released soon; finally, the global economy is in a low-inflation environment, and June 28 is a critical day for Greece’s debt problems. The central bank’s timely launch of the “double-down” major policy is an important hedging measure when the economy faces systemic risks, and it is very timely and necessary.
He believes that from a technical point of view, the market's short-term extreme bearish or bearish mentality will change, but the Shanghai Composite Index will begin to fluctuate widely in the range of 4000-5000 points. Investors in the stock market will pay more attention to the investment value of individual stocks and the operating conditions of listed companies. The stocks or sectors that have previously speculated on concepts, themes and expectations will fade, which is also an important manifestation of the return of the stock market.
来源:我爱钢铁网
